CHICAGO — When users of GLP-1 drugs stop taking the weight-loss medications, they’re more apt to hold back on spending for fast food than for groceries, consumer data specialist Numerator finds.
The Chicago-based research firm estimates that 12.3 million US households include a lapsed GLP-1 user, and these consumers account for more than $166 billion in annual grocery and fast-food spending.
Yet spending for fast food recovers less than for grocery after GLP-1 usage ceases, Numerator said. Purchase data for the 12 months ended Sept. 30 show spending per household at limited-service restaurants fell 4.6% year over year among former GLP-1 users, even topping the 3.4% decrease among active users. Over the same period, grocery spending by households with lapsed GLP-1 users tailed off 1.8%, compared with a 2.6% decline for active users.
“Fast-food spending remains under pressure even after GLP-1 treatment ends,” Numerator said. “McDonald’s, Domino’s and Subway face continued spending declines among lapsed GLP-1 households.”
Among fast-food players, spending per household for lapsed GLP-1 users was down by 15% year over year for Subway, 6.8% for Arby’s, 4.5% for Domino’s and 1.8% for McDonald’s, the 12-month purchase data showed.
“All four chains experienced steeper declines than active-user households,” Numerator said.
On the grocery side, purchase data indicate that spending at some of the largest retailers fared better for former GLP-1 takers than for active users. According to Numerator, Costco spending per household grew 3.2% for lapsed-user households but dipped 1.6% for active-user households. Similarly, spending rates for ex-GLP-1 users bested those for active users at Target (up 0.3% versus down 3.9%) and Albertsons (down 0.4% versus down 6%).
“Costco and Target see stronger spending from lapsed GLP-1 households,” Numerator said, adding, “while Walmart spending among lapsed-user households increased 1.3%.”
The trend differs for food manufacturers, however, as companies such as Campbell’s, Hormel and Utz continued to lose spending from previous GLP-1 households over the 12-month time frame, Numerator said.
“Spending among lapsed-user households declined 6.6% for Campbell’s, 4.8% for Hormel and 4.3% for Utz,” the research firm said. “The contrast suggests that a stronger grocery-spending trajectory among lapsed users does not necessarily translate into recovery for every manufacturer.”
Numerator said its quarterly GLP-1 tracker, which had over 95,000 responses in its latest survey wave, gauges adoption, usage and consumer sentiment and then pairs those insights with verified, longitudinal purchase behavior from its Total Commerce panel, which covers shoppers across more than 50,000 retailers.
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